Grade History
| Quarter | Disclosure Quality | Financial Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Q1'25 → | A- | B |
| Q2'25 → | B+ | C+ |
| Q3'25 → | B- | B |
Promise Ledger · All Quarters
| Marked | Promise | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'25 | ✅ | Build depth of super prime funding Added 7 new bank/CU partners, reached all-time high monthly funding capacity | delivered |
| Q3'25 | ❌ | Continue model improvements driving conversion Model went conservative, conversion dropped 330bps despite improvements | missed |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | Scale auto retail business momentum Doubled live rooftops, +70% sequential volume, expanded to 4 new states | exceeded |
| Q3'25 | ⏳ | Transition new product funding off balance sheet by end of 2025 Now hedging with 'deal timing not perfectly predictable' - deals taking longer | pending |
| Q3'25 | ❌ | Q3 contribution margin of ~58% (from Q2 guidance) Came in at 57%, down 100bps due to lower conversion rates | missed |
| Q3'25 | ❌ | Total Q3 revenue of ~$280M (from Q2 guidance) Delivered $277M, fee revenue missed internal expectations by ~6% | missed |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | Return to profitability in Q3 2025 (from Q2 call) $32M GAAP net income vs $6M in Q2, though helped by $7.2M debt repurchase gain | delivered |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Launch Upstart HELOC in California Launched in Q1, now covering 37 states plus DC, almost 75% of US population | delivered |
| Q2'25 | ⏳ | 10X our leadership in AI Model 22 delivered 17-point separation improvement, embeddings breakthrough, but 'leadership' unmeasurable | pending |
| Q2'25 | ⏳ | Best rates against major market competitors for each borrower segment by end of 2025 Management says 'running well ahead of this target' but no specific win rate data provided | pending |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Launch first machine-learning model in servicing very soon ML already informing optimizations, delinquency rates down 20-32% year-over-year | delivered |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Add newer products to committed funding partnerships Signed 9 lending partnership deals across secured products, Fortress agreement for $1.2B | delivered |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Return to GAAP net income profitability in the second half of the year Achieved GAAP profitability in Q2, a quarter ahead of schedule at +$6M | exceeded |
| Q1'25 | ⏳ | 10X AI leadership with model innovations Introduced embeddings technology but 10X claim remains unmeasurable without benchmarks | pending |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Scale committed capital partnerships Added Fortress partnership and maintain 'well over 50%' committed funding | exceeded |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Move to single underwriting model for unsecured products Single model now deployed for both personal loans and small-dollar products | delivered |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Launch HELOC in California California HELOC launched in Q1, expanding to 37 states plus DC | delivered |
| Q1'25 | ❌ | Reduce loans held directly on balance sheet Balance sheet loans increased from $703M Q4 to $726M Q1 despite guidance to reduce | missed |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Return to adjusted EBITDA profitability in 2024 Achieved $10.6M full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA vs negative prior year | delivered |
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