Grade History
| Quarter | Disclosure Quality | Financial Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Q1'25 → | B- | B |
| Q2'25 → | C- | C |
| Q3'25 → | B+ | B- |
| Q4'25 → | A- | B+ |
| Q1'26 → | A- | B+ |
Promise Ledger · All Quarters
| Marked | Promise | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | ⏳ | Gradual churn consistent with pre-ARPA levels Payment rates consistent year-over-year, churn patterns as expected so far | pending |
| Q1'26 | ⏳ | MLR in range of 82.4%-83.4% for full year Q1 at 70.5% suggests strong trajectory toward guidance | pending |
| Q1'26 | ✅ | Start Q2 with approximately 3 million paid members Hit exactly 3 million paid members to start Q2 | delivered |
| Q1'26 | ✅ | SG&A ratio improvement to 15.8%-16.3% Q1 delivered 15.2%, the lowest in company history | exceeded |
| Q1'26 | ⏳ | Risk adjustment at approximately 20% of direct premiums Currently running at 24% but management expects this to normalize | pending |
| Q1'26 | ⏳ | Return to profitability in 2026 with $250M-$450M operating income On track with Q1 delivering $704M, well ahead of quarterly run rate needed | pending |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | Geographic expansion in 2026 Entered Alabama and Mississippi, expanded in existing core markets | delivered |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | Oswell AI agent integration across product portfolio 86% question completion rate, 67% response time improvement quantified | delivered |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | ICRA expansion and employer conversion opportunity ICRA membership doubled, Hy-Vee partnership launched, though still not material | delivered |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | Continue to diversify our product mix with condition-specific plans Launched HelloMeno, expanded lifestyle products beyond clinical conditions | delivered |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | We are well positioned to profitably grow share Market share increased from 17% to 30%, guidance suggests continued profitability | delivered |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | Total addressable market for 2026 approximately $12 million Disclosed addressable market up 500K but typo suggests $12M not million - needs clarification | exceeded |
| Q4'25 | ⏳ | We remain confident in our ability to expand margins and return to profitability in 2026 Provided specific 2026 profitability guidance of $250-450M operating income - on track to deliver | pending |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | Continue to harvest AI efficiencies Launched Oswell, first concrete AI product vs prior vague promises | delivered |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | Disciplined pricing to balance growth and profitability 28% increases prove discipline, though maybe too disciplined for growth | delivered |
| Q3'25 | ⏳ | Meaningful margin expansion in 2026 Still committed but now explicitly acknowledge need to 'expand margins' rather than just market stabilization | pending |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | $60M administrative cost elimination for 2026 Already executing reductions, expect run-rate savings in 2026 | delivered |
| Q3'25 | ⏳ | Market will stabilize in 2026 Maintained but language subtly less confident about external factors | pending |
| Q3'25 | ⏳ | Return to profitability in 2026 Repeated commitment with same confidence level - still on track with 28% pricing | pending |
| Q2'25 | ⏳ | Continue to execute against our strategic plan Made ICHRA acquisitions and Hy-Vee partnership but core ACA business struggling | pending |
| Q2'25 | ❌ | Risk adjustment largely consistent year-over-year as percentage Now mid-teens percentage, massive deterioration from 'consistent' guidance | missed |
| Q2'25 | ❌ | Earnings from operations in the range of $225M to $275M Swung to $200M-$300M loss guidance, $475M+ miss at midpoint | missed |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | SG&A expense ratio in the range of 17.6% to 18.1% Improved guidance to 17.1%-17.6%, delivering on efficiency promises | delivered |
| Q2'25 | ❌ | MLR in the range of 80.7% to 81.7% Raised to 86%-87% due to market morbidity deterioration, massive 500+ bps miss | missed |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Total revenue in the range of $11.2B to $11.3B in 2025 Raised to $12.0B-$12.2B, $850M increase at midpoint due to better retention and SEP additions | exceeded |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Above market growth continuing 41% member growth vs 13% market growth last cycle | delivered |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Meaningful margin expansion this year Operating margin improved 110 bps to 9.8% | delivered |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Positive net income in 2025 $275M in Q1 alone vs $25M for all of 2024 | exceeded |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | SG&A ratio 17.6% to 18.1% improvement Q1 came in at 15.8%, well below guidance range | exceeded |
| Q1'25 | ⏳ | MLR 80.7% to 81.7% for full year Q1 at 75.4% suggests backend loading as expected | pending |
| Q1'25 | ⏳ | Total revenue $11.2B to $11.3B for 2025 Reaffirmed guidance despite membership volatility concerns | pending |
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