Grade History
| Quarter | Disclosure Quality | Financial Quality |
|---|---|---|
| Q1'25 → | B+ | B+ |
| Q2'25 → | B+ | B+ |
| Q3'25 → | A- | B+ |
| Q4'25 → | B+ | B |
| Q1'26 → | B+ | B |
Promise Ledger · All Quarters
| Marked | Promise | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | ✅ | Positive adjusted free cash flow trend continuation $17M positive, fourth consecutive quarter, 7 of last 8 quarters positive | delivered |
| Q1'26 | ✅ | Revenue growing 20+ percentage points faster than IFP dynamic to continue Revenue +71% vs IFP +32%, 39 point spread, well above 20+ promise | delivered |
| Q1'26 | ⏳ | Continue launching multiple car states throughout 2026 On track, launched autonomous car with Tesla, expanding rollout | pending |
| Q1'26 | ✅ | Growth spend of about $225M for full year 2026 Raised to $235M, 4.4% increase showing confidence in efficiency | exceeded |
| Q1'26 | ✅ | Clean-the-book efforts largely wrapped up by end of 2025 They claim it's done but ADR hasn't improved, so either incomplete or other retention issues | delivered |
| Q1'26 | ⏳ | Q4 2026 full quarter EBITDA positive and full year 2027 EBITDA positive Reiterated identical language, no change to timeline despite Q1 loss widening | pending |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | ADR improvement as clean-the-book efforts complete ADR stabilized at 85%, up from prior quarter but momentum stalled | delivered |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | LTV-to-CAC ratio maintained above 3:1 Maintained 'above three times' but stopped providing specific multiple | delivered |
| Q4'25 | ❌ | Total 2025 growth spend of about $180M Actual spend higher due to Q4 overperformance, shifted to $225M for 2026 | missed |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | Q4 growth spend at roughly similar level to Q3 ($46M) Delivered $53M, 15% above guided level | exceeded |
| Q4'25 | ✅ | Revenue growth outpacing IFP growth through Q2 2025 Delivered 20+ point differential vs guided 12+ points, extended timeline indefinitely | exceeded |
| Q4'25 | ⏳ | Positive adjusted EBITDA for full quarter Q4 2026 Reaffirmed with stronger language ('we will be' vs 'expect'), increased confidence level | pending |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | Loss ratio improvements to continue 62% gross loss ratio was record low, better than expected | exceeded |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | Europe as meaningful growth driver Europe now material contributor though growth rate moderating from 200%+ | delivered |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | Revenue growth to outpace IFP growth Revenue +42% vs IFP +30%, 12-point differential exceeded expectations | exceeded |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | ADR to normalize and resume improvement ADR improved from 84% to 85% as predicted | delivered |
| Q3'25 | ✅ | Continue state launches for car product Added Colorado and Indiana, now in 10 states covering 50% of US market | delivered |
| Q3'25 | ⏳ | Positive adjusted EBITDA before end of 2026 Unchanged timeline, management reaffirmed Q4 2026 target | pending |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Growth spend efficiency maintenance Doubled car spend while maintaining efficiency, cross-sell volume doubled | delivered |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Geographic expansion continues for car Added Colorado and Indiana, now 10 states covering 50% of market | delivered |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Car business momentum building Hit $150M IFP milestone, 82% loss ratio 13 points better YoY | exceeded |
| Q2'25 | ✅ | Positive adjusted free cash flow in 2025 Generated $25M in Q2, ahead of guidance despite California wildfires | delivered |
| Q2'25 | ❌ | ADR normalization and improvement over coming quarters ADR flat at 84%, still showing 4-point drag from home cleanup with no improvement timeline | missed |
| Q2'25 | ⏳ | EBITDA breakeven by end of 2026 Maintained guidance but now heavily dependent on reinsurance accounting changes rather than operational improvements | pending |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Car IFP stabilization before growth Not just stable but now outgrowing the rest of business | exceeded |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Operating leverage from fixed cost control 10 quarters of declining real expenses while growing 65% | exceeded |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Geographic expansion for car in 2025 Added Colorado, now at 40% market coverage | delivered |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | TTM loss ratio in target range around 73% Hit exactly 73% despite active CAT year | delivered |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Sustained acceleration toward 30% growth Six consecutive quarters of accelerating growth, now at 27% | delivered |
| Q1'25 | ⏳ | EBITDA breakeven by end of 2026 Reiterated unchanged timeline, excludes growth spend was EBITDA positive in Q4 | pending |
| Q1'25 | ✅ | Cash flow positive for full year 2024 $48M positive vs guidance for breakeven - delivered a year early | exceeded |
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