Lumentum Holdings (LITE)

Management Credibility Scorecard · 2 quarters tracked (Q2'26 - Q3'26)
Last updated May 5, 2026 · latest call analyzed
90%
Kept of 10 resolved
9
Kept / Exceeded
1
Missed
3
Still Pending

Grade History

QuarterDisclosure QualityFinancial Quality
Q2'26 →B+A
Q3'26 →A-B+

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedPromiseStatus
Q3'26✅Better transceiver yields and lower scrap rates
Confirmed improvement, though margins still challenging
delivered
Q3'26⏳200-gig EMLs to be 25% of mix by end of calendar 2026
At 5% in Q3, more than doubled sequentially
pending
Q3'26✅$750M quarterly revenue by mid-2026
Hit $808M in Q3, well ahead of timeline
exceeded
Q3'26✅OCS $10M quarter targeted for fiscal Q3
Cleared $10M three months early in Q2
exceeded
Q3'26⏳Material CPO shipment inflection in H2 calendar 2026
Still on track, confirmed in Q3 commentary
pending
Q3'26✅Front-loaded 40% fab capacity expansion target - delivered over half in Q2
Actually got ~20% in Q2 alone, ahead of plan
exceeded
Q2'26✅200 gig EMLs about 5% of mix in Q2
Achieved 5% unit mix, 10% of revenue as expected
delivered
Q2'26❌CW laser production by second quarter 2026
Pushed out 2-3 months to late Q2/early Q3 2026
missed
Q2'26✅Sustained transceiver growth ending fits and starts
$50M sequential increase, guidance shows continued momentum
delivered
Q2'26⏳Material CPO shipment inflection second half calendar 2026
Reaffirmed timeline, added multi-$100M order for 2027
pending
Q2'26✅40% indium phosphide capacity increase over next few quarters
Front-loaded >20% in Q2 alone, ahead of timeline
delivered
Q2'26✅First $10M OCS quarter in fiscal Q3
Cleared $10M three months early in Q2, now targeting much higher run rate
exceeded
Q2'26✅Cross $600M quarterly revenue by June 2026 or earlier
Hit $665.5M in Q2, well ahead of June target with Q3 guiding $805M midpoint
exceeded
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Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Grades, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.