Herc Holdings (HRI)

Management Credibility Scorecard · 5 quarters tracked (Q1'25 - Q1'26)
Last updated April 28, 2026 · latest call analyzed
94%
Kept of 18 resolved
17
Kept / Exceeded
1
Missed
12
Still Pending

Grade History

QuarterDisclosure QualityFinancial Quality
Q1'25 →C+B-
Q2'25 →BB
Q3'25 →C+B-
Q4'25 →BB-
Q1'26 →B-B

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedPromiseStatus
Q1'26⏳Leverage ratio improvement beginning at year-end 2026
Ratio stable at 3.96x, meaningful improvement still expected at year-end
pending
Q1'26✅Return fleet to younger average age with H&E integration
Extending average age of younger acquired fleet, focus shifted from rightsizing to utilization
delivered
Q1'26⏳Improve time utilization as sales force scales and demand evolves
Saw sequential improvement in Q1 but still down pro forma year-over-year
pending
Q1'26⏳Revenue synergies of $100-120M incremental for 2026
Target intact but pushed to back-half weighted, early progress not quantified
pending
Q1'26✅Cost synergies tracking ahead of plan
Running ahead of expectations with $125M total vs original timeline
exceeded
Q1'26✅Complete integration by end of Q1 2026
Management claims integration work is behind them and branch optimization finished
delivered
Q4'25✅Sales force stabilization
Attrition now at normalized levels, backfilled key positions
delivered
Q4'25⏳Revenue synergies of $390M through 2028
Reaffirmed target but admitted 2025 had front-loaded dis-synergies
pending
Q4'25✅Cost synergies of $125M target
Now tracking ahead of plan with full impact in 2026
exceeded
Q4'25✅Fleet rightsizing and optimization in back half 2025
$342M Q4 disposals completed the fleet rebalancing
delivered
Q4'25✅50 additional specialty locations by 2026
80% complete ahead of schedule, finishing next month
exceeded
Q4'25✅Complete systems integration in 90 days vs typical 6-18 months
Completed full ERP migration and ProControl rollout as promised
delivered
Q3'25✅$400M-$600M net CapEx for 2025
Maintained guidance despite higher gross CapEx for synergies
delivered
Q3'25⏳Leverage target of 2x-3x by calendar 2027
Reaffirmed timeline with no change to deleveraging plan
pending
Q3'25✅Stabilize H&E workforce disruption
Attrition returned to normalized levels, though productivity ramp continues
delivered
Q3'25⏳$350M revenue synergies over 3 years
Still targeting same amount but only anecdotal examples of progress
pending
Q3'25⏳50% of $125M cost synergies by year-end 2025
Reaffirmed target but no progress metrics disclosed
pending
Q3'25✅Technology integration completed by end of September 2025
Completed systems cutover as promised, though operational training continues
delivered
Q2'25✅Used equipment market stabilization
Proceeds stable at 44-45% of OEC, market described as 'healthy and steady'
delivered
Q2'25✅Maintain equipment rental revenue growth around 5%
Core Herc delivered 4% growth excluding acquisition impact
delivered
Q2'25✅H&E regulatory review completion for midyear closing
Closed in early June after HSR refiling process
delivered
Q2'25✅Complete remaining in-flight greenfields
Opened 8 of 11 new facilities in Q2, 11 total in H1
delivered
Q2'25✅Gross CapEx at 45% of annual plan by mid-year
On track with seasonal Q2/Q3 ramp as expected
delivered
Q2'25❌Start anniversarying local market challenges in Q2 2025
Local markets continue seeing pressure with new projects on pause; no improvement from anniversary effect
missed
Q1'25✅Flow-through normalization as demand recovers
March saw normalized flow-through return after Q1 choppiness
delivered
Q1'25⏳Positive rental rate year-over-year for 2025
Confirmed directionally but stopped giving specific rate metrics
pending
Q1'25⏳Net CapEx of $400-600M for 2025
On track with disciplined Q1 spend, confirmed midpoint target
pending
Q1'25⏳Return to 2-3x leverage within 24 months post-H&E close
Reiterated commitment but timeline depends on integration execution
pending
Q1'25⏳Adjusted EBITDA growth of 1-6% for 2025
Q1 up 2.7%, tracking toward lower end of range
pending
Q1'25⏳Equipment rental revenue growth of 4-6% for 2025
Q1 came in at 4.9%, within range but at lower end despite weather excuse
pending
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Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Grades, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.