B+
Overall grade
A-
Financial quality
The sleeper story is baccarat's evolution from a boring 2.85% house edge game to a 4.2% side-bet bonanza - and it's spreading from Singapore to Macao as smart tables roll out. While everyone focuses on the Singapore blowout quarter, the real binding constraint is Rob's own conservative guidance: 'We've been wrong all along for starters, and we've under forecasted this thing.' Macao's turnaround is only halfway done with more promotional spending ahead, but the payoff could be substantial if they hit that $2.7-2.8B target. Rob's best quote: 'We're not leading the market. We're simply in the mix. And that's a good thing.' My view changes if Macao market share gains stall despite continued reinvestment or if Singapore hold rates prove unsustainable.
The 30-second version
- Smart tables aren't the story - baccarat side bets are quietly revolutionizing hold rates across the industry
- MBS is tracking toward $2.8-2.9B EBITDA despite Rob's 'conservative' $2.5B forecast
- Macao's reinvestment strategy is only 'halfway there' - margin compression ahead
What changed this quarter
| Metric | Prior | This quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Singapore EBITDA | $768M (55.3% margin) | $743M (51.7% margin) |
| Macao EBITDA | $566M (31.3% margin) | $601M (31.5% margin) |
| Singapore Rolling Hold Rate | 3.7% theoretical | 4.2% theoretical |
| Macao Mass Market Share | 23.6% in Q1 | 25.4% |
| LVS Share Buybacks | $800M in Q2 | $500M |
| Dividend Guidance | $0.25/quarter | $0.30/quarter in 2026 |
| Singapore Mass Gaming Win | $843M | $905M |
| Londoner EBITDA Margin | 31.9% | 31.9% |
Accountability tracked
8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises graded
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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